The Greater Miami Chapter of the AMS presents
"Where should we collect extra
observations to improve hurricane forecasts?"
Dr. Sharan Majumdar
Univ. Miami/RSMAS
May 18, 2005 at 3pm.
Media/Conference room at NHC
Abstract:
For many years, synoptic surveillance missions have been conducted in the vicinity of tropical cyclones to improve track forecasts. The surveillance data collected by dropwindsondes are assimilated in real-time into the operational forecast models. The traditional method for sampling has been to distribute dropwindsonde observations uniformly around the storm. Recently, modifications to the uniform sampling method have been tested. The first, based on the variance of an "ensemble" of forecasts, has shown promise. Two newer techniques, which have been used for Winter Storm Reconnaissance, will be compared and contrasted for several key tropical cyclones in 2004 using the NCEP GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF models. The relative merits of these techniques will be discussed, and questions will be raised on how to improve sampling strategies for the G-IV aircraft and for extra satellite and rawinsonde observations. Issues related to the initialization of hurricanes in operational models will also be discussed, and new methods to improve these will be presented.